BLOG

Over the Easter weekend, I read a compelling new book about our near future — The Great Disruption by Paul Gilding, a former head of Greenpeace International and top sustainability advisor to Dupont and Ford. Here’s my personal review & action plan. (Originally this was a personal Facebook note, but I’ve been asked to publish it for a broader audience).

Paul makes the case for three mental shifts. First, let’s stop talking about if we do not take action to address climate change and start talking about when we don’t take action — because we haven’t, and probably won’t before substantial global warming is simply locked-in based on clear trends in population, economic growth and resource use. As he says, this is no longer about our children’s children, it’s about us. We’re stuck with a zero-growth future, more extreme weather events, the collapse of insurance and banking industries and substantial global security challenges. Gilding predicts The Great Disruption — and by this he means not a particular extreme weather disaster but a diverse range of impacts and a realisation by the markets & general public of the scientific and economic reality of our future — will hit between 2018 and 2023.

But at the same time, it won’t be too late. Because (the second mental shift) says Gilding, it’s almost never entirely too late. Yes, too late almost certainly to save vast numbers of animal species. Too late perhaps to protect the coral magnificence of the Great Barrier Reef. Sadly too late to prevent substantial global famine and death. But not too late to save our civilisation, and even maintain our quality of life for many. Humans rise to crisis. If presented with a choice between making some dramatic but vital changes to how we live — or the end of our economy and our civilisation — we won’t consider it a choice at all. We will act.

Gilding draws comparisons to World War 2. Europe and the United States dithered and appeased Hitler’s rise. Only when the threat became so dire did they wake-up and unleash an immense war effort that mobilised their populations, transformed their economies and industries and fought back from imminent and total defeat. They went beyond what seemed possible – to do what was necessary. Gilding has a similar prediction for what we will do when faced with a similar existential threat – a plan for a 5-year “1 degree war” (to keep global warming to that cap). This scenario combines massive investments in renewable energy, giant carbon sequestration schemes and an openness to geo-engineering our atmosphere, followed by 80 more years of slow and consistent effort to reduce our carbon emissions beyond zero.

I couldn’t write this blog without some commentary on what I believe Paul’s thesis means for activists and policy-makers pushing for pricing pollution right now. Some might argue his claim that the world will not act until 2018 is further cause for delaying action here: why should we, in Australia for instance, “damage our economy” when the world’s response will not gear up for several more years? In fact, of course, the opposite is true. Australia’s economy and society will inevitably experience substantial disasters, job losses and security and migration challenges – we will have to act – and the sooner we start the climb down from our world-leading heights of carbon emissions, the less distance we’ll have to fall, and the softer our landing will be. We’ll be better positioned – and more competitive – than those who did not act when the evidence was clear. If it’s about survival of the fittest, surely it’s attractive to be in the best possible shape! The fact that this fairly straight forward (and far from traditionally leftist) notion is so poorly understood or accepted by the public reflects the paucity of our political leadership, the abrogation of responsibility by our media and the clear failure of our education system. Our failure to act on climate is not just a failure of our market system, but of our societal system.

But the thoughts swirling in my head after turning the last page of The Great Disruption were (yes, perhaps selfishly) less about what it meant for Australia and more what it meant for me. If Gilding’s scenario is generally accurate and I’m lucky with my health (plus an assumption of some ongoing medical advancement), I may live long enough to see humanity come out the other side of 2100 and breathe a sigh of relief that we made it through. But there is no doubt my life will coincide with a turbulent time.

So I couldn’t rationally put the book down and exclaim, “I agree, there is a more than even odds chance Paul is spot on” – and then go back to my personal ‘business as usual’. This is the type of mind-bending book that demands a personal response, an action plan. I’ve put together some initial thoughts (see below) which I will continue to update as I digest further. Some of the actions below may on first glance seem like I’m crassly taking advantage of the Disruption for personal benefit but this is not the case. It would be crass to take advantage of people’s climate misfortune – whereas what I’m doing is identifying areas of promise and possibility that are involved in the inevitable shift to the low carbon society, while making sure I’m an early mover to minimise my own personal risks. My goal is to know the future so I can (begin) to control my future. In a world of disruption, control no doubt becomes the Holy Grail. As a westerner living in the top few per cent of the ranks of the world’s rich, it will be easier for me than most. And, as Gilding notes, making the third mental shift – from a state of climate-induced depression to a mindset of opportunity is a much better head-space from which to act and live.

There is much more in The Great Disruption than I can summarise and I strongly recommend the book to anyone concerned with securing their own thriving and happy future – let alone one for our shared humanity.

My personal action plan:

PERSONAL FINANCES

• Self-manage my superannuation/retirement fund and invest in a narrow range of industries likely to weather and thrive the Great Disruption. Encourage my family members and friends to take the same approach, or indeed invest in ‘my’ fund. I could also expand this into a co-operative or an advisory business. Wise investments would not just be about avoiding coal, oil and gas. It’s about thinking laterally and broadly about other sectors that could decline. Child-care for example, might be on the wane as in a steady-state economy people may work less and have more time to look after the kids. More on companies that will thrive in business opportunities below. This is especially important for those of us who are managing money with at least 30 years to go until we can get it back.
• Avoid owning property with extensive climate risk – e.g. near the sea, far from fresh water, in areas likely to be affected by climate-related natural disasters, etc. I should probably also encourage my parents to sell their house a few blocks from the beach! If asset prices are inflated due to an expectation of asset-price growth, it is likely their value will fall dramatically in a lower-growth economy. So, generally, I should not consider buying property now even if I had the cash. Instead, I should wait 6-10 years for prices to drop substantially. (Note concept is complicated by the fact that climate-induced migration e.g. to Australia may substantially increase demand for housing which would prop up prices). The exception may be property that is currently undervalued but become highly valued – metaphorically those on high ground and tangibly those a long way from likely global security hot-spots.
• Review my insurance coverage to ensure it covers climate change impacts wherever possible – but never be in a position where I am entirely reliant on the insurance paying out. This is likely to be a short term tactic that cushions any initial climate financial blows, but is not likely to be offered in the medium term. Consider what less access to insurance in the future means to me: I’ll perhaps need higher levels of physical security for my house & contents, a single secure or diversified income streams (in place of income-insurance), higher savings levels (to cover unexpected events and destruction of property). And I should consider a more simple life, where there are fewer things that can go wrong!
• Save money now before our economy (and arguably my earning power) goes into decline. Begin to live conservatively within the means I am likely to have in the future rather than expect that those means will necessarily stay the same or increase. Put any surplus into savings & strategic investments.
• Purchase physical items – from furniture to kitchen appliances – for their lasting value, quality and energy efficiency. I will need them to last into the future, as things get more expensive and ‘disposable’ or ‘replaceable’ items are priced to reflect their inherent resource-use. Buy less things but better things. Even if less convenient, store things or lend them out — don’t throw them away assuming I can or will want to replace them with something else later. I have tended to see shopping as something to do quickly and efficiently (and at specific times) to fulfil immediate needs – even if that results in lower quality products. Ironically sometimes I should be more spontaneous – buying products of truly lasting value even when it’s not entirely convenient.
• Get used to being more energy efficient. Even if (morals aside) I am not going to drop my own personal emissions to zero anytime soon, I should start learning the habits of Great Disruption and dramatically conserve energy use where I can. So get used to hanging clothes on the line, not using an electric dryer (hard but not impossible to do in my current flat).Turn stand-by power off at the wall. Monitor carefully my electricity use and try and bring it down (something that should be easier now that Smart Meters are being installed). Where possible, buy technologies that make being efficient as easy as possible – e.g. a switch that turns off all stand-by power when I go to sleep with one hit.

CURRENT (or near term) WORK

• Thankfully my job is already focused on social change, so it makes it easier to focus it around the challenges of the Great Disruption. But there are some specific take aways.
• Politics – In my political and advocacy work, I need to work with and support political leaders that have the best qualities to manage and lead The Great Disruption. Any political party or leader that has denied or sought to delay climate action will be morally and intellectually ‘over’ as soon as the Great Disruption begins – their credibility will be shot (Note to self — except, the US Democrats survived their support for slavery… look into that one!). But there is no reason why renewed, even war-like action to mitigate climate change would naturally usher in wonderful progressive policies across the board. Indeed, in the moment of crisis there may be a tendency in political leadership and parties of all stripes to develop conservative, intolerant or otherwise radical policies on climate refugees, too-hasty geo-engineering, approaches to foreign aid, you name it. We’ll find radical re-alignments in parties and power bases. The need for a progressive issue-based, post-partisan advocacy will be even more important. I should work with political parties so that the most insightful, innovative, sustainability-oriented, compassionate, progressive – Chuchillian – types of leaders have power; but it’s hard to know which of our political parties (or ones that aren’t yet established) will be the key players of tomorrow.
• Development – Pilot “re-distribution” global giving programs. Gilding describes a future in which global economic growth stalls, so the only way people will escape extreme poverty is through income re-distribution from rich to extremely poor. For obvious reasons, this is a notion that’s unlikely to go down well with many people – although perhaps security challenges (such as in the Middle East, where whole economies are based around the use of fossil fuels) and climate mitigation efforts (e.g. protecting the rainforests) will increase our self-interest to put aside ideological objections and redistribute a percentage of our income. To be ahead of the curve, maybe we should begin now? I’d be interested in partnering with some (or just one) of our development charity clients to trial a model of giving specifically based around income redistribution – in which people give not a once-off amount to an urgent appeal, but a specific pre-tax, payroll deducted amount that steadily increases with your own income. Gilding argues “happiness” levels do not increase much after around $15,000 in per capita income, except where you compare yourself to your peers – so mobilising your peers (colleagues) to be it together is also important. I’d suggest we start by encouraging giving of 2% of your income, increasingly by .5% a year until it reaches 10%, before re-evaluating. The goal with this project is not to immediately end extreme poverty, but instead to get the idea out there and practiced by key influencers so that when the time comes for society-wide adoption, the ‘cool kids’ are already doing it. (As an aside, I’m also thinking about an array of options that could be introduced that could lend money back to the giver in the case of urgent personal financial crisis).
• Gilding’s book includes the subtitle “The end of shopping” and he goes into some depth about our addiction to growth and our substitution of consumption for meaning. In a low-growth, post consumerist world, we’ll suddenly have to adapt. Should I start an organisation called “Shopaholics Anonymous” to help wean the public off buying in much the way Alcoholics Anonymous provides space for alcoholics. More broadly, there are two challenges and opportunities here — one is that for many, the Great Disruption will be tremendously personally challenging both in terms of mental health and financially. Small, “strong-tie” groups of peers could provide a supportive relationship to help people cope, just as the Great Wars of the 20th century saw a rise in community groups like Rotary and Lions clubs as communities re-built together. The other opportunity foreseen by Gilding is the a re-focusing on quality of life, friends, experiences and events – over material possessions; but this doesn’t necessarily mean we need to do it 1950s style: beyond organisations, how can we leverage social media technology to not just catalogue our lives of consumerist joy or alcohol fuelled abandon, but draw even more meaningful real world experiences between friends. (I’ve a proposal for a social networking app focused on just this, which I really should drag out and build).
• I’m on the board of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, and we’re about to go into a period of long-term strategic planning. We created AYCC back in 2006 with the mission “To create a generation-wide movement to solve the climate crisis before it’s too late”. If I needed reminding, Gilding’s book shows why groups like AYCC as so vital. A high school student today is preparing for life and planning for the future career in a world which they can often already see will be fundamentally disrupted by forces beyond their control — meanwhile many of their elders are in denial about the problem (or at least the scale of it). If nothing else, AYCC has value in giving young people a “heads up”. But beyond this, there is no doubt that when Gilding’s 1-degree war does come, as with all wars, it will be the young people who will be asked to serve on the front lines. Organisations like AYCC that are movement-based and training-oriented will be vital pieces of social & economic infrastructure. The Boy Scouts are proud of their contribution preparing boys for roles during WW1. The 1 degree war (a war for humanity, not amongst humanity) may be when AYCC’s role to ‘build a generation wide movement to solve the climate crisis’ truly comes to the fore. We’ll just have to think deeply about whether realistically “too late” is when that time will begin.
• China’s influence in our new disruptive world and my life will be huge – as a key player in reducing emissions, a financial force that will overtake the US very soon, a model of government that is very different from the US, Europe or Australia. But while I’ve many connections and led projects with people in countries across the world, China has rarely featured. I’m going to China in September for two weeks ‘holiday’ travelling from Beijing to Shanghai. I need to use this trip to begin to better understand China and how I might engage with people there. I think I’ll be back!

EDUCATION

• While many of the ideas in the Great Disruption were familiar to me, there are several topics that will be fundamental to the future, where I need to study up to ensure I have even an acceptable general knowledge! Perhaps I also felt these were areas where the book felt a little “light weight”, and a little more detail and less re-iteration of the general argument would have been welcome.
• First, I need to learn more about steady-state economics (I’ll start by reading The Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome).
• Second, I need to understand more about Britain in World War 2 – what actually brought about the tipping point in public consciousness. What was it about the invasion of Poland (vs. Austria) that made everyone sit up – and declare war!
• Third, I need to understand more about what the science and economics is telling us about the likely initial “hard” impacts of climate change and unsustainable growth. I don’t need to know specifics, but I feel like the dates are all a bit wishy-washy in my mind – at some stage the Artic will melt, at some stage the seas will rise, at some stage there will be X greater likelihood of bush-fire risk in country Victoria. While it’s unlikely to unfold exactly as predicted, this general data is available and it’s stupid not to know it. Unlike human behaviour (and for example, the thinking of global terrorists), the science of how the planet reacts when it is polluted is (for scientists…) comparatively easy to predict!
• Fourth, Gilding makes much of the importance of CCS – carbon capture and storage technology, not so much to enable ongoing coal-fired power, but rather to capture burned biomass (e.g. forests). But there is little discussion around the technical challenges and the environmental ones associated with pumping CEO into underground basins. I want to spend some time frequenting myself with this field, if only so I can defend this position to my highly articulate ‘anti CCS’ friends and colleagues.

Were I to choose to study something at University in a more concentrated way that would help strengthen my personal response to the Great Disruption, I might focus on one of these three…

• An MBA focusing on emerging business models where the focus is on access to a product rather than ownership of it – with less “things” produced overall, and an incentive for the owner to ensure the item is built to last as long as possible with the most possible usage.
• An MBA focusing on leadership in Crisis – how did Churchill and others re-align their economics and populations to a war-footing. How did the US go from 1.6% of GDP on the military in 1939 to more than one third just a few years later? Obviously I’m not interested in increasing military expenditure, but what kinds of policies and interactions occurred, and how did they accommodate the vested interests?
• An economics course – particularly focused on ecological economics & understanding more about steady-state economics. If this is the future, how does it work, what does it look like, what kind of government policies will be required? What does this mean for businesses and business models?

PROMOTING THE BOOK

The Great Disruption is an important book and it will undoubtedly receive a wide audience. What can I do to further promote the book?

• Write a blog review and share with my friends. Check!
• Create a short 2 or 3 page summary of the key arguments in the book – preferably in Frequently Asked Questions format. I already found myself needing some talking points to rebut questions from my mum, and a ‘cliff notes’ version to give to people that wouldn’t buy or read the full book.
• Make a version of the book specifically designed for groups that need to hear it most – those who need to prepare for major disruption to their existing jobs or lifestyles and really need as much forewarning as possible. For example, a version could be created for people in the coal-fired power station industry?
• Could we host a briefing for Australian politicians from all sides of politics or for key business leaders? Paul’s probably already on to that!
• Could we turn it into a film? (I notice that RSA has recorded a speech by Paul Gilding summarising the book – hopefully this means they’ll soon turn it into an animation).
• Is there a need for a website where people discuss the book & create/debate their own personal action plans?

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES

The Great Disruption will be tremendously disruptive- destroying some industries and creating new ones, and some of this is explored in the book on both sides of the equation. Gilding mentions Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management as one company that is at the forefront of investing informed by long term sustainability trends (it’d be interesting to work for them one day…).

I thought I’d write down some industries that seem ripe for expansion and are worth getting into (maybe I could be involved with a company focused on one of these areas sometime down the track).

• Engineering, with a focus on renewable energy and items used within it – e.g. rare earth minerals (for solar panels), ball-bearings (for wind turbines), whatever it is that is used to drive geo-thermal power (find out!)
• Genetically engineered fast growing plants that sequester large amounts of carbon
• Geothermal energy
• Non-fossil fuel based energy for plane and ship travel – from large sails to solar power…
• Really awesome video conferencing systems that replicate the quality of physical meetings. Holograms anyone?
• Large scale marketing and awareness campaigns that communicate the transformation to the public (see: Disney during WW2)
• Electric cars and transportation
• Measuring energy use, including home energy systems
• Anything to do with batteries.
• Advising companies on sustainability strategies
• Personal coaching relating to the Great Disruption. (Seeing as it appears many very important and/or wealthy people are totally unprepared, they’ll probably need some advice when it truly sinks in!)

LIFE

Hopefully “my life” is one area where I have to change less as a direct result of the Great Disruption; which sounds counter intuitive but makes more sense when I define life as my friends and experiences and happiness. (Of course, many other things may change).

One thing I’m torn about is the possibility that shortly air travel will become prohibitively expensive (pricing in the huge amount of carbon emitted) and it will become challenging to travel vast distances across the world (at least until new technology is developed). I’m concerned on two levels. One is that I will miss out on exploring many great places that form part of our interconnected planet– for now, my approach will be to try to make fewer but longer trips overseas and explore more places I have never yet been to (not a very satisfactory solution I know!).

But in reality tourism is a second order concern. I’m much more worried about the fact that I have friends all over the world garnered through living in a variety of countries and working for international organisations that I will probably see very rarely in the future. The result will be more attention to Facebook for my global friendship network, but also a focus on continually strengthening my friendships in the few places I am likely to live in, in the future.

In general, it sounds like this will be a tough time – and amidst the uncertainty, I want to focus on building solid friends and family relationships that will be resilient, caring, loving and there for each other.

I need to acknowledge the contribution of my friend Paul Ferris who worked closely with Paul Gilding on the book as a researcher and collaborator. The rigor and logic behind The Great Disruption is very Paul (Ferris) and I’m sad we couldn’t discuss this in person (one of those people now on the other side of the planet) but I hope to very soon! Fantastic work Paul!

Share